Background/aims: Since hematogenous spread of tumor cells may adversely affect the prognosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma, we prospectively analyzed whether the presence of alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) messenger RNA (mRNA) in blood, used as a marker of circulating hepatocellular carcinoma cells, correlates with outcome.
Methods: Eighty-eight patients were enrolled between December 1993 and August 1995, and 81 were followed until the end of 1997. All patients were treated with percutaneous ethanol injection therapy and/or transarterial embolization during follow-up. The status of AFP mRNA in blood was serially determined. Cumulative metastasis-free survival and overall survival were analyzed in relation to AFP mRNA and other clinical and laboratory variables.
Results: Among 81 patients followed, 54 were positive for AFP mRNA at entry and 27 were negative. Extrahepatic metastasis developed more frequently among the AFP mRNA-positive patients (13 of 54) than among the AFP mRNA-negative patients (2 of 27) (p=0.0296). After treatment, AFP mRNA became negative in 24 of 54 patients (44%). Cumulative metastasis-free survival and overall survival were significantly better in the 24 patients whose AFP mRNA became negative after treatment than in the 30 patients with persistently positive AFP mRNA (p= 0.0001 and p<0.0001, respectively).
Conclusions: The presence or absence of AFP mRNA in blood is a predictor of outcome in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma.