The role of IGF-I in the pathogenesis of diabetic retinopathy is unclear. We studied, prospectively, the relationship between an IGF-I gene polymorphism, retinal vessel diameters, and incident diabetic retinopathy in subjects with impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) or type 2 diabetes. In all 5,505 participants of the population-based Rotterdam Study (775 with IGT, 394 with type 2 diabetes, and 4,336 control subjects), fundus color transparencies were taken at baseline (between 1990 and 1993) and at follow-up (from 1997 to 1999). The wild-type genotype (i.e., carriers of the 192- or 194-bp alleles) was present in 72.7% of the participants, while 27.3% were variant carriers. Variant carriers with IGT or type 2 diabetes appeared to have larger retinal arteriolar and venular diameters at baseline than individuals with the wild-type genotype, but these differences did not reach statistical significance. This trend was especially observed in subjects who developed retinopathy at follow-up. In variant carriers with IGT/diabetes, an increase (odds ratio 1.8 [95% CI 1.0-3.2]; P = 0.04) in the risk of retinopathy was observed compared with participants with the wild-type genotype. In conclusion, our findings suggest that this IGF-I gene polymorphism is associated with an increased risk of diabetic retinopathy.