Objective: To study the value of HLA-DRB1 shared epitope (SE), -308 tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-alpha) gene promoter polymorphism, rheumatoid factor (RF), anti-citrullinated peptide antibodies (anti-CCP), and baseline erosions for predicting radiological outcome at 1 year in patients with recent-onset rheumatoid arthritis (RA).
Methods: Radiological damage was assessed by radiographs at baseline and at 1 year in an inception cohort of 134 RA patients with disease duration<or=1 year at study entry. Radiographs were scored with the modified Sharp/van der Heijde (SvdH) erosion score for hands, wrists, and feet. The predictive value of the variables was studied by multiple linear regression analysis, using immunogenetic factors, baseline SvdH erosion score, and type of treatment during the followup period as independent variables, and SvdH erosion score at 1 year as the dependent variable.
Results: The SvdH erosion score increased from the baseline visit to the 1-year visit in 49 patients (36.6%). In multiple linear regression analysis, radiological outcome was significantly predicted by SE homozygosity (beta coefficient 1.75; 95% CI 1.54, 2.96; p=0.005) and baseline SvdH erosion score (beta coefficient 1.56; 95% CI 1.4, 1.71; p<0.001). This model explained 78% of the variability of the dependent variable (R2=0.779).
Conclusion: Erosive damage at 1 year in patients with recent-onset RA is significantly influenced by SE homozygosity and the presence of baseline erosions, but not by RF status, anti-CCP status, or -308 TNF-alpha genotype.