Insulin-dependent (Type I) diabetes mellitus is a chronic autoimmune disease. From studies in discordant twins and multiplex families a long prediabetic period has been reported. In a population-based program started in 1983, fifteen individuals at possible risk for future Type I diabetes were followed for up to 74 months. Two individuals (13%) developed Type I diabetes. These probands were characterized by the presence of high-level cytoplasmic islet cell antibodies (ICA), complement-fixing ICA, and an impaired first-phase insulin response after intravenous glucose load. Both were homozygous for a high-risk immunogenetic marker of Type I diabetes, i.e., non-Asp at codon 57 of the HLA-DQ beta chain. In all other subjects studied, the immunogenetic marker that confers "dominant resistance", aspartic acid at codon 57, was found. On the basis of our data we conclude that a combination of assays which determine ICA, first-phase insulin release, and HLA-DQB1 polymorphisms will identify individuals with a high probability of developing Type I diabetes at the population level. Conversely, HLA haplotypes positive for aspartic acid seem to confer resistance to the disease.