Objectives: To assess the independent impact of new genetic variants on conversion to advanced stages of AMD, controlling for established risk factors, and to determine the contribution of genes in predictive models.
Methods: In this prospective longitudinal study of 2765 individuals, 777 subjects progressed to neovascular disease (NV) or geographic atrophy (GA) in either eye over 12 years. Recently reported genetic loci were assessed for their independent effects on incident advanced AMD after controlling for 6 established loci in 5 genes, and demographic, behavioral, and macular characteristics. New variants which remained significantly related to progression were then added to a final multivariate model to assess their independent effects. The contribution of genes to risk models was assessed using reclassification tables by determining risk within cross-classified quintiles for alternative models.
Results: THREE NEW GENETIC VARIANTS WERE SIGNIFICANTLY RELATED TO PROGRESSION: rare variant R1210C in CFH (hazard ratio (HR) 2.5, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.2-5.3, P = 0.01), and common variants in genes COL8A1 (HR 2.0, 95% CI 1.1-3.5, P = 0.02) and RAD51B (HR 0.8, 95% CI 0.60-0.97, P = 0.03). The area under the curve statistic (AUC) was significantly higher for the 9 gene model (.884) vs the 0 gene model (.873), P = .01. AUC's for the 9 vs 6 gene models were not significantly different, but reclassification analyses indicated significant added information for more genes, with adjusted odds ratios (OR) for progression within 5 years per one quintile increase in risk score of 2.7, P<0.001 for the 9 vs 6 loci model, and OR 3.5, P<0.001 for the 9 vs. 0 gene model. Similar results were seen for NV and GA.
Conclusions: Rare variant CFH R1210C and common variants in COL8A1 and RAD51B plus six genes in previous models contribute additional predictive information for advanced AMD beyond macular and behavioral phenotypes.