Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 transmission dynamics with a case study of Wuhan

Faïçal Ndaïrou; Iván Area; Juan J Nieto; Delfim F M Torres

doi:10.1016/j.chaos.2020.109846

Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 transmission dynamics with a case study of Wuhan

Chaos Solitons Fractals. 2020 Jun:135:109846. doi: 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.109846. Epub 2020 Apr 27.

Authors

Faïçal Ndaïrou^{1

2}, Iván Area², Juan J Nieto³, Delfim F M Torres¹

Affiliations

¹ Center for Research and Development in Mathematics and Applications (CIDMA), Department of Mathematics, University of Aveiro, Aveiro 3810-193, Portugal.
² Departamento de Matemática Aplicada II, E. E. Aeronáutica e do Espazo, Campus de Ourense, Universidade de Vigo, Ourense 32004, Spain.
³ Instituto de Matematicas, Universidade de Santiago de Compostela, Santiago de Compostela 15782, Spain.

Abstract

We propose a compartmental mathematical model for the spread of the COVID-19 disease with special focus on the transmissibility of super-spreaders individuals. We compute the basic reproduction number threshold, we study the local stability of the disease free equilibrium in terms of the basic reproduction number, and we investigate the sensitivity of the model with respect to the variation of each one of its parameters. Numerical simulations show the suitability of the proposed COVID-19 model for the outbreak that occurred in Wuhan, China.

Keywords: 34D05; 92D30; Basic reproduction number; Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 pandemic; Numerical simulations; Sensitivity analysis; Stability; Wuhan case study.