To relate genetic variation in Graves' disease (GD) susceptibility to polymorphism at MHC loci, clinical and family studies were undertaken in eastern Hungary. Among 1980 relatives of 534 index patients, 2.9% of siblings, 2.7% of offspring, and 3.0% of parents had GD. HLA haplotype combinations in affected sibling pairs were determined in the present data and combined with data in the literature (12 sibling pairs from Farid 1981, 12 from Chan et al. 1980, and 15 from Sasazuki et al. 1983); 43, 23, and 1 affected sibling pairs shared, respectively, 2, 1, and 0 HLA haplotypes. This distribution is inconsistent with simple dominant inheritance, but is consistent with simple recessive inheritance of HLA-related susceptibility over a range of gene frequencies (0.2-0.4). A frequency of 0.3 gives the best fit and is consistent with penetrance of 7.1% for the recessive susceptibility genotype; the data, however, can accommodate penetrance values up to 16%. The distribution of HLA haplotypes in 33 families related disease susceptibility more strongly to DR than to other loci. The distribution of HLA-B8 genotypes in 256 patients was in close agreement with Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium proportions, also favoring recessive inheritance of MHC-related susceptibility. The probability that an individual will be affected with GD can be predicted, based on sex, HLA genotype, and family history. For example, 14.9% of DR3-positive women with an affected first degree relative are likely to be affected. These predictions can be tested as family data accumulate.