Soluble TNF receptor type II (sTNF alpha RII) levels in serum, CD4 lymphocyte counts, and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) burdens have each been correlated with HIV disease progression. The level of sTNF alpha RII and HIV RNA was measured in serum and the CD4 lymphocyte count of 25 HIV-infected patients was determined. sTNF alpha RII ranged between 3.019 and 12.57 ng/mL (mean +/- SD, 6.705 +/- 2.5). HIV-1 RNA varied from 960 to 281,160 copies/mL (71,988 +/- 75,684). CD4 cell number was between 4 and 540/microL (181.3 +/- 152.2). Univariate analysis revealed a moderate inverse correlation of sTNF alpha RII with CD4 cell number (r = -.41, P < .05) and a strong positive correlation between sTNF alpha RII and log RNA copy number (r = .62, P < .001). On multivariate analysis, sTNF alpha RII strongly correlated with RNA copy number (P < .01) but not CD4 lymphocyte count. sTNF alpha RII measurements appear to be predictive of clinical outcomes because they are a surrogate indicator of the patients' immunologic response to a virus load.